That would be worth testing. I did no optimization on any of the inputs.

Good point Bluehoseshoe in regards to the buy and hold investor. I really did not think of it that way. Thanks for posting!

Thanks for an interesting article. At a glance, this would appear to give something between a four and five percent annual return on investment in its basic form. You state that the basic form is not a complete trading system, but I beg to differ . . .

For a buy and hold investor (who has no stops anyway, and will undergo whatever draw-down the market drags him through), then this offers a significant improvement. There is a timing element, which is systematic, and there is also a reduced amount of time spent in the market, which represents a systematic reduction of risk. So yes, it’s all pretty basic, but to someone operating on the very most basic level (the typical buy-and-hold investor), this approach may well be a gift.