It’s interesting (to use a polite term) that you are bulled up on a strategy that had a record year last year and this year is losing money. Sports markets change in months, not years, these days and your example has all the markings of formerly effective system that the market has already responded to. In fact, everyone and their brother was already using this system on opening day. Hence, the edge evaporation.

Finally, on your web site, you claim to “know [your] EXACT edge every single time”. This is a giant red flag, as it indicates you are incredibly overconfident, a slimy marketer, or (probably) both. No one knows his exact edge going forward. You can try to estimate it based on history, but that’s all it is – an estimate.

Source: 20 years of successful sports handicapping, the last 8 of which have been monitored by respected firms.

Thanks Matt! I agree all the questions and comments added a lot of value to the original article. In a world where most comment sections are mind numbing at best and crawling with faceless trolls, the readers of STS are always thought provoking and freely share their ideas and expertise.

Hi Michael, I stumbled upon this article that goes into further detail of human psychology in the betting markets (and has several other good links to studies inside the article). But it goes on to discussion exactly why 65 percent of all bets are on the favorites, and why this is. Anyways just wanted to share it as it kind of ties back into the article and your question of the edge fading (and its an interesting look into human nature), as it explains better then I could as to why some edges may never fade which is crazy to think.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-people-bet-on-the-favorite-even-when-the-spread-favors-the-underdog/

Thanks for the kind words John, glad you enjoyed the article!