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All posts by Jeff Swanson

Seasonality S&P Market Session

In a recent article, Seasonality Study, I took a look at the classic seasonality effect as seen in the U.S. markets. Briefly recapping that article, it shows that the trading days between November through May appear to hold significant gains in the market while the trading days between June and October hold far less profit. In this article I would […]

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Market Seasonality Study

With October over I thought it would be a good idea to review our Market Seasonality Study.Back in May of this year, we closed a seasonality trade in anticipation for a traditionally weak period of the stock index markets. That is the months of May, June, July, August, September, and October. So what did the […]

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Testing Market Regime Indicators

Often when designing a system it’s important to keep the big picture in mind. What is the overall market doing? The most simple way to accomplish this is to break the market into two regimes: bullish and bearish. We are all aware that price action is a mirror of human psychology of market participants, therefore […]

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System Performance and Confidence Interval

When you review the performance of a trading model, how do you know it’s worth trading for? How do you know it’s the right system for you? How confident are you that it will continue to profit in the future? When it comes to evaluating your trading model there are many factors to take into […]

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Battle of the Oscillators…Round 2


In a past article, Predictive Indicators written by John Ehlers, he highlighted a unique indicator used to time market cycles. This indicator is a heavily modified Stochastic Oscillator and was demonstrated on the S&P. In this article, I want to put John’s Oscillator to the test by comparing it to another popular indicator Backtesting Environment for […]

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Down Days Trading Model

I’ve written a lot about the 2-period RSI indicator popularized by Larry Connors and Cesar Alvarez. This indicator highlights significant pullbacks which can often be buying opportunities within major market indexes like the S&P.  Pullbacks in the market are a result of the market closing down. That means, today’s close is lower than the open. […]

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Best Times To Day Trade


If you are developing a trading system to trade intraday charts you might want to know when are the best times to day trade. This article is aimed at those who enjoy opening and closing a trade within a day. That is, those of you who are day traders that end the day with your […]

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Risk-Based Position Sizing

Let’s start with a thought experiment. Let’s say we have two traders who are each given identical trading systems to execute on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).  Because both systems are identical copies of an automated trading system, both trading systems generate the same buy/sell signals, use identical stop loss and trailing stop parameters.These two trades […]

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Improving The Moving Average Crossover System

Let’s take a look at a simple moving average crossover system and see if we can improve it. Specifically, can we improve the moving average system’s performance by reducing the number of whipsaws during those dreaded range bound markets? Whipsaws occur when a market moves from a trending mode to a consolidation mode. During this […]

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Improving The Double Seven Strategy

In this article I want to take a look at a reader’s recommendation on improving the Double Sevenstrategy. If you recall, the Double Seven strategy is a long-only strategy for the the broad U.S. indexes. It was created by Larry Connors and was covered in a previous article, “Double Seven Strategy”. Recently a reader pointed out a […]

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