• You are here:
  • Home »
  • Author's Archive:

All posts by Curtis White

Simulation: Beyond Backtesting

One problem with traditional backtesting is that it relies on the presupposition that there are repeating predictive patterns in the market. In fact, most trading methodologies rely on this assumption. And yet we know the disclaimer that past performance is not indicative of future results.And yet backtesting largely assumes that the future will be similar […]

Continue reading

3 Techniques to Avoid Consecutive Losing Trades

In my experience trading futures, I have found that most damaging losses are caused by taking consecutive losing trades, i.e. runs of losing trades or correlated loses. In this post, I share 2 simple methods and 1 advanced method to avoid consecutive losses which can be applied to your trading systems and discretionary trading.The first […]

Continue reading

Reasonable capital required for day trading futures?

A good rule of thumb is that a reasonable risk per day for a day trader is from 2% to 5%. A moderate level of risk is around 3% of your capital. The new CME e-micros makes it possible to get started with trivial amounts of risk (from $500 to $1,000 or even less). However, the e-micros are […]

Continue reading

Better RSI Entries

Mean reversion systems, such as those based on RSI, suffer significant performance degradation when stop losses are applied for risk control. In previous posts, I shared how one could create more powerful RSI systems by using adaptive periodicity and multi-state regime classifiers.The key idea for better RSI entries is that there may be a unique optimal RSI […]

Continue reading

A Visual Quantitative Analysis of RSI using Tradestation and Excel

The traditional way to treat the RSI is to treat low RSI levels as good buying opportunities while treating high RSI levels as selling opportunities. However, we seek to gain fresh insight into the nature of RSI, with an eye toward discovering possible momentum return, by exploring the RSI using a visual quantitative approach.Exporting And Visualizing The DataWe […]

Continue reading

Finding The Optimal Period

Today’s topic is on finding the optimal periodicity for the RSI indicator and the techniques should apply to other sorts of indicators as well. The good news is that it won’t require any rocket science. John Ehlers has written a lot about this topic, and his articles spurred my interest in it, which frankly I […]

Continue reading

Multiplex For Greater Profit

Two problems that often result from system optimization are:  (1) a reduction in the number of trades, a system that generates too few trades can both be more difficult to trade and a low number of trades does not inspire confidence; and… (2) there is a selectivity or specialization risk that, by sheer bad luck, the specific […]

Continue reading

Discover Best Trading Rules with Perceptron Search

Every system developer has a list of rules and indicators that they want to test out. The problem every developer faces is narrowing down that list of rules and indicators to the select few that are best worth focusing on. A quite similar and related problem that every developer has to deal with is having […]

Continue reading

A Better Regime Filter To Boost Returns

One technique for optimizing systems is to create a regime filter. A most common example is a binary classifier that classifies the market into either bull or bear markets based on closing above or below the 200 day moving average. But, there are problems with binary classifiers and we will demonstrate why a multi-state classifier […]

Continue reading
>